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Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

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Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Nepplol » Wed Apr 13, 2011 9:13 am

I've tried the latest version of Mew (04/12) and got weird RSV.

Weapon DPS 4.57
Agility 2.96
Strength 2.25
Exp 1.31
Hit 1.30
Haste 1.21
Mast 1.18
AP 1.07
Crit 0.99

So basically I should reforge to hit and exp ? :>

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Morghan » Wed Apr 13, 2011 10:02 am

Weird I ran myself through as well and got this:

Weapons DPS: 3.86
Agility 2.22
Strength 1.72
AP 0.82
Mastery 0.78
Crit 0.68
Haste 0.63
Hit 0.54
Expertise 0.54

Mind you I'm currently geared into hit and expertise a bit.

Hit is 949 (7.9%), expertise 335 rating (11)

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Qbear » Wed Apr 13, 2011 12:55 pm

Honestly I'm not quite sure what to say, when I read your post I went and ran myself through the sim and got pretty much what I got with the last version of mew weap dps>agi>str>mastery>haste>crit>hit>exp with haste, crit,hit,exp all being very close to one another and mastery though close still clearly the winner.

The only thing I could suggest is make sure you placed your buffs and debuffs correctly, I know most people who get weird calculations through mew often get them through leaving this section blank. Though even clicking randomly through mine I couldn't find a way to mimic your results.

Maybe just maybe your hit is so close to the cap currently that it's prioritizing hit to get you the rest of the way. If that's not the case then I'm completely stumped.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Sylvaneart » Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:55 pm

Crit capping would drive hit up.
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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Leafkiller » Wed Apr 13, 2011 3:09 pm

The first question I ask when I see posts like this is (drumroll): What exactly did you run through Mew? Did you use Formulation or Simlulation? If you used Simulation, did you use the default script or my script (which is unlikely until I update it to work with the new Mew)? What glyphs? What settings?

The second thing that comes to mind is the admonishment about RSV values in Mew. They are tested by varying the stat ratings by about 100, and are not valid if you change them beyond that (as in reforging 2 pieces will make them invalid). In other words, you cannot use RSV values to tell you how to reforge. It is possible that a succession of tests where you reforged one piece at a time and retested will get you to a local point of optimization - but it is just as likely that there are multiple points of optimization and you will not be hitting the "best" one. I use the term "best" loosely since the RSV values only work for whatever fight scenario you have setup Mew to model and if you change the fight setup then the RSV values will also change.

I would not rely on RSV values to tell you what to reforge to. Focus on a setup that is comfortable and allows you to execute the rotation as easily as possible. Some people like extra haste, some hit, some crit. Execution of the rotation is far more important than shuffling the secondary stats around right now (notwithstanding the need to have hit for certain fights if you have to interrupt). The one possible exception, which cannot be modeled currently in Mew, is Al'akir where in phase three you are in front of the boss - and reforging for expertise and glyphing for Mangle are worth considering.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Nepplol » Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:12 pm

I'll add some infos : rip shred zerk glyphs

Simulation, default script, 300 sec and default settings.

486 hit rating
50 expertise rating
1289 crit rating

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Fri Apr 15, 2011 2:28 am

Please post the std error reported by Mew too.
My guess is it's around .17 if you are using the default 10k iterations, which is definitely not enough to make comparisons with. You'll want to do at least 100k, preferably 1million, but that takes a really long time.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Sylvaneart » Fri Apr 15, 2011 10:43 am

Hey Tang welcome
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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Mandragaran » Sat Apr 16, 2011 2:33 pm

So ....

on his second post Tang climbs far above me in the intelligence with mew meters.

Curse you, Tang. GTFO!

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Suhmon » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:25 am

I actually posted about this on the Blizzard druid forums. I ran the new Mew and was getting haste heavily valued over all the other secondary stats. It seemed really strange. Crit was my worst stat. It's very interesting if the stat values are somehow changing but it just seems like something could be off with Mew. I know Tang was checking it out so really curious to see what comes of this.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Leafkiller » Sun Apr 17, 2011 3:06 pm

@Suhmon, the problem with RSVs in Mew is that they are calculated over a range of around 100 stat points which is about what you get from reforging a single piece of gear. So what you are seeing is that for your stats, you should reforge one piece of gear to haste. After that you would have to recalculate.

Using RSVs will get you to "local" dps peaks, but not tell you what is optimum. Also, as Tangedyn pointed out, you need very long runs (100k+ iterations) to even make those calculations meaningful. Try this - reforge entirely for hit and expertise and them run Mew, writing down your dps numbers and the RSV numbers. Then do the same for crit, and then for haste. Now create a balanced setup - 5% hit, crit and haste about equal and do another run. That will give you more insight into what the RSVs are actually telling you.

Never forget that each of the stats makes the other stats more valuable - and this causes relative movement in value between them. Current stat scaling is not like the pre-4.0 Wrath where the scaling on one secondary stat (Arpen) was so much better than any other stat that we did everything we could to get it capped even at the expense of our primary stats (agi/str).

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:11 pm

I've just posted this on theincbear: http://theincbear.com/mew-and-rsvs/

There's definitely some weird stuff going on, and I can't rule out an issue with Mew itself, but I think that's unlikely.

Anyway Suhmon I've run your settings (1M iterations) and getting some more interesting results:
Strength=2.43354, Agility=3.23414, Ap=1.1584, CritRating=1.10255, HasteRating=1.09398, MasteryRating=1.26394, HitRating=1.13827, ExpertiseRating=1.12862, MeleeDps=5.00789

This is with my latest unreleased version of Mew with the new 4.1 Berserk changes.

I'll have to investigate this more with E372 setups with GoBerserk.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Nepplol » Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:39 am

I've rerun for 1million and getting interesting results but it does puzzle me that a model to have to generate 1million iteration assuming 1 iteration equals 1 fight.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Mon Apr 18, 2011 5:13 am

That's because the standard deviation for an iteration (~500-600 DPS) is far larger than the mean difference adding 100 of a stat (e.g. ~120 DPS for Mastery Rating).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_e ... tistics%29 and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem explains in more details.
Last edited by tangedyn on Mon Apr 18, 2011 5:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Suhmon » Mon Apr 18, 2011 5:23 am

Well what does all this mean then? For the longest time, it was always pretty static. Of the secondary stats it was always Mastery way ahead, then crit and haste, then hit and expertise in a distant last. It didn't seem to matter what gear level or how many samples, it was always like that. Now it seems to be all over the place. Have stats suddenly changed their values or is something up with Mew? Seems strange that just gaining a few more 372 pieces from last running Mew that Haste, hit and expertise would somehow become so valuable.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Mon Apr 18, 2011 5:39 am

Well, the default strategy script has been tweaked and improved several times, they are likely to have some small effect.

Also, I'm not exactly sure about how accurate the older RSVs were, since they were not reported with their error values, and we know now that the default 10k iterations is not accurate enough.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Suhmon » Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:48 am

Kind of makes me want to reforge to hit and expertise caps this week and see how my dps goes. As it is, hit and expertise are scoring higher than crit and super close to mastery anyway and it would be a slight quality of life upgrade in terms of rotation. I guess it's worth tinkering with.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Fate » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:03 am

If you hit and expertise cap (or even get close), I presume your energy pooling strategy changes. After all, you no longer benefit from staying below 80-mumble, in case of a miss.

Does Mew handle that transition gracefully? Can see some weird edge effects cropping up if it wasn't set up to handle that.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Tinderhoof » Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:26 pm

Suhmon wrote:Kind of makes me want to reforge to hit and expertise caps this week and see how my dps goes. As it is, hit and expertise are scoring higher than crit and super close to mastery anyway and it would be a slight quality of life upgrade in terms of rotation. I guess it's worth tinkering with.

I have been using around 600-700 hit depending on what gear I had at the time. The reason I moved to using hit was a lot of the hard mode fights we were doing required a lot of target switches. Nothing seemed to kill my DPS like changing to a new add and having my mangle miss then have rake dodged twice.

There is a limit though. We were having a lot of trouble on Tron Council because interupters were letting way to many of Arcanotrons blasts through. I reforged to the cap so I could be part of the melee rotation. The only way to get that extra hit with out getting rid of Mastery was to drop a lot of crit. I lost about 2k dps from the night before. On 16 attempts with 600-700 hit I was averaging 19k dps. On 17 attempts with hit cap I was averaging 17k dps. The other feral in my guild and I went over the logs and we figured most of the loss came from a drop in critical hits from Rake and Rip.

So I wouldn't get to excited about hitting the cap, but try and find a balance.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Suhmon » Mon Apr 18, 2011 8:34 pm

So I wouldn't get to excited about hitting the cap, but try and find a balance.


Not sure if excited is the word I'd use for hit capping =P. I'm lazy and would rather not reforge any of my stats. But at the moment hit and expertise are valuing higher than crit or haste apparently and I'm getting annoyed at losing out on a rip/rake/mangle refresh on HM Atramedes or H VT when they are lifting off the ground. Gotta pad the dps as much as possible to keep up with the double dotters.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Leafkiller » Mon Apr 18, 2011 11:32 pm

Repeating what I said earlier in this thread - thes RSV are calculated in a range of around 100 stat points. So reforge one piece of gear to hit and then do a new RSV calculation.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Tue Apr 19, 2011 1:38 am

Ideally, we would like to be able to use a delta of +1 stat point for RSV evaluation, like we do for Formulations. It would require 10000 times more iterations though, to retain the same confidence level. If only we had access to a supercomputer :/

Like LK said, if you can find the best reforging option without using RSVs, you should probably do that. Put in your current gear, run Mew without RSVs at 100k iterations which should be pretty fast. Look at the DPS. Now reforge your gear to Hit or whatever you want to test, then run Mew again with 100k iterations. Check the difference, compare difference with the confidence interval (multiplied by square root of 2) to check significance.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Nepplol » Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:21 am

(Un?)Fortunately I manipulate biostatistical model every single day and I do understand SD and CLT but my opinion is that maybe the model isn't enough flexible. Generating a situation where you are in data overfitting is not always the best solution...

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby Tinderhoof » Tue Apr 19, 2011 2:27 pm

Leafkiller wrote:Repeating what I said earlier in this thread - thes RSV are calculated in a range of around 100 stat points. So reforge one piece of gear to hit and then do a new RSV calculation.


This is the best way to go. In the interest of gold for the reforging give http://wowreforge.com a shot. It's a pretty easy to use tool that will let you go through all your reforging options free of charge.

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Re: Question about Hit/Exp and new Mew code.

Postby tangedyn » Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:38 pm

Nepplol wrote:(Un?)Fortunately I manipulate biostatistical model every single day and I do understand SD and CLT but my opinion is that maybe the model isn't enough flexible. Generating a situation where you are in data overfitting is not always the best solution...


You'll have to explain why you think the model isn't flexible enough and how data overfitting applies.
The source code to Mew is open, if you need to see what it is trying to do.

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