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Shred/FB Priority during BitW

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Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Mitty » Thu May 26, 2011 3:15 pm

Hey folks, I am back at kitty dps after a long absence from the game. Reading what I can over at EJ and on the blogosphere, I think I have a handle on the rotation priority, except I am unclear on priority during the Blood in the Water phase (boss health less than 25%).

1. During BitW phase, assuming plenty of time left on SR, do I spam shred and only FB to refresh Rip when Rip is low (2-3 sec), or do I shred for cps and FB as soon as I hit 5 cps?

2. I wonder if there is a different answer if Berserk is active?

Thanks and sorry if the answer is obvious to you all -

Mitty

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Tinderhoof » Thu May 26, 2011 3:38 pm

Hi Mitty. Welcome to the community.

I tend to use FB as often as I can during BitW phases. Now you do have to be mindful of how much energy FB uses and make sure you have enough to keep Rake, SR and 4p going. If I know that TF is about to come off cooldown I will hold off a bit so I can get a bigger FB so long as nothing will drop off.

As for Berserk I would say hold off on FB if you possibly can because it's such an energy whore. It's better to try and finish off your berserk with an FB then lose a chunk of that cooldown to being energy starved.

Hope that helps.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby CaptainCub » Sun Jun 05, 2011 6:59 am

Tinderhoof wrote:I tend to use FB as often as I can during BitW phases.

Is this the consensus? I'm very interested in this question as well. What I've been doing is only push FB to refresh Rip at the latest possible time - at about 3 sec left. I would also do a TF'd bite over anything else regardless of the time left on Rip because TF then buffs both FB and Rip.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Beanna » Sun Jun 05, 2011 7:29 am

As far as I know, using FB even before BiTW is a DPS increase but it is so low that it is really not worth risking to lose your Rip or SR, that is why it is generaly better to save combo points and energy to be ready to refresh our dots or buffs at anytime.
But I wonder if we should not avoid using FB when we have refreshed Rip with a TF'd FB that provides +15% damages for the full duration. I think Ovale is not very clear about this.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby CaptainCub » Sun Jun 05, 2011 8:01 am

Beanna wrote:As far as I know, using FB even before BiTW is a DPS increase but it is so low that it is really not worth risking to lose your Rip or SR, that is why it is generaly better to save combo points and energy to be ready to refresh our dots or buffs at anytime.
But I wonder if we should not avoid using FB when we have refreshed Rip with a TF'd FB that provides +15% damages for the full duration. I think Ovale is not very clear about this.

It's the conjunction of both the 4.0.6 buff to Shred and the revised Unheeded Warning that has caused FB to no longer be competitive above 25%. With UW equipped the damage potential of two Shreds and the CP conservation outweigh the opportunity cost of using FB. Clearly you should not overwrite a TF'd Rip during BITW, you can take that to the bank and I'd be shocked if proven wrong. Besides Ovale has no built-in checks for TF'd abilities or was it Mew? I don't remember...

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Tinderhoof » Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:08 pm

CaptainCub wrote:Clearly you should not overwrite a TF'd Rip during BITW, you can take that to the bank and I'd be shocked if proven wrong. Besides Ovale has no built-in checks for TF'd abilities or was it Mew? I don't remember...

Let's do a little napkin math here.
First we know that a fully extended Rip will run for 22 seconds. This should give us 11 ticks. For me fully raid buffed my average rip tick is 9,372, and a crit is 19,399. My crit rate is ~44%. A normal FB (5cb full energy) is about 19k, and a crit is 43K. Rounding up to make the math come out easier we will say 10k for normal, 20k for crit, and 45% crit.

Assuming we have 11 ticks, at 45% 6 will be normal (60K), and 5 (100K) will be crits. That is 160,000 damage for a fully extended Rip. A TF'd rip would add 24,000 damage (160,000 * .15). If I executed a 5cb FB with full energy (assume 3 shreds to extend my TF'd rip + energy pooling) I am going to hit around 10 seconds into the rip assuming luck with crits or OOC. That means I am going to lose about 12k-14k damage from the TF'd rip. Even if Rip didn't crit at all for the first 10 seconds and was going to crit every remaining tick, that would still only be 15k-18k damage lost. The lowest FB is going to hit for 19k.

I know crit has a funny way of running through awesome streaks and dry spells. Assuming Rip ran into an 80% run of the ticks critting thats 200,000. A TF'd Rip with 80% crit would only add 30,000 damage. Again assuming good luck a FB after 10 seconds would still only lose you 15k-18k.

I know this is napkin math, but I was rounding up with Rip damage and not touching FB damage. Under the best case scenario for rip, and worst case for FB I would say that is a DPS gain no matter how you look at it. That assumes that only one FB was used in 22 seconds and it wasn't a crit. As long as Rake, and SR are not going to fall off over writting a TF'd Rip with a FB will not be a dps loss.

Now I am not an amazing math wiz, so I could have missed something. If someone finds and error here please set me straight.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Leafkiller » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:51 pm

I can tell you what we are doing in the sim scripts.

If combo points are five, Rip is up and we are in the BiTW phase, then use FB.
If combo points are nonzero, Rip is up and about to expire, and in the BiTW phase, use FB.

This is prioritized after using TF, hitting Berserk, refreshing Mangle (either for 4 piece T11 or the raid debuff) and Ravage (if is is about to expire).

I don't recall every scenario I tested when I did my original BiTW sims, nor what scenarios Toskk and/or Yawning may have tired, but that is how the code is in both the default sim script and also my sim script.

There are no checks for Berserk, energy pooling or if the existing Rip is TFed. Likely it would not impact Rake much as the code already tries to clip Rake - and if it was close to expiring when you hit FB, it would likely be the next thing you cast (unless you needed to hit a Mangle or FFF*). I would not worry about any impact on SR. A small amount of SR downtime will not compare to the dps from the extra FBs that provide zero cost refreshes of Rip. DPS goes up significantly during the BiTW phase - an example sim I just did shows 23.1k before and 26.9k during - so the sim code is certainly not bad. If anyone wants to play with that part of the sim to see if there are additional significant gains to be made - please do so.

*You really should never have an issue with FFF as there are lots of times you can refresh it early when you are pooling energy so you can make sure it never needs refreshing when you want to be doing other things.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Yawning » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:21 am

TLDR: "Push the bite button if cps = 5 during BitW, and did I mention how sexy the new Mew Cat Report output is?"

Leafkiller wrote:I can tell you what we are doing in the sim scripts.

If combo points are five, Rip is up and we are in the BiTW phase, then use FB.
If combo points are nonzero, Rip is up and about to expire, and in the BiTW phase, use FB.

This is prioritized after using TF, hitting Berserk, refreshing Mangle (either for 4 piece T11 or the raid debuff) and Ravage (if is is about to expire).

I don't recall every scenario I tested when I did my original BiTW sims, nor what scenarios Toskk and/or Yawning may have tired, but that is how the code is in both the default sim script and also my sim script.


I didn't test this case at all because I didn't need to. Basic math will show that it's unrealistic to lose DPS by biting. Note: Numbers cited are from the cli client using SVN Mew (~372 gear with 4t12) can't be bothered to do it with live since even with unbuffed bite, my conclusion doesn't change at all.

Tinderhoof's rough math is flawed, but the corrections only further bias things in favor of using bite so it's somewhat of a moot point.
a) The values he gives for Rip and Bite are inflated because he's presumably taking them from a log. If this is the case, the average value is skewed by Tiger's Fury. The amount of skew is different per ability as well (if you were one of the cool kids and using a SVN build, you would see something like " Rip coverage: 31.60403%" in the cat output).
b) He used a worst case scenario comparison so this is slightly a moot point, but Ferocious Bite will have approximately a 25% higher chance to crit than Rip. (Actual value subject to hit/exp and "is the player speced like a retard".)

Doing it correctly anyway, since I want to show off some of the new output....

Since I have the source code to Mew, I removed the Tiger's Fury damage bonus and pulled out some numbers.

For Rip I get: "Crit/Hit: 47.9953%/52.0047% Average damage: 12288.13806"

For Ferocious Bite I get: "Miss/Dodge/Crit/Hit: 0%/0%/74.31501%/25.68499% Average damage: 37939.95992" (Why yes, I did hit/exp cap the profile to simplify math.)

My base Rip damage (per tick) is: 12288.138/ ((2.06 * 0.5204) + (0.4799)) ~= 7918
My base Ferocious Bite damage is: 37939 / ((2.06 * 0.7431) + 0.2568) = 21223.59

TFed Rip damage (per tick) is: 9105.7 (+1187 dmg/tick)

Assuming 0% Rip crit, and 0% Ferocious Bite crit for simplicity, the break point is: 21223.59 / 1187 = 17.88 ticks.

If I lose 17.88 ticks worth of TF'ed Rip damage by biting, the Bite is a DPS loss. No matter how hilariously broken the Shred glyph implementation is on a day to day basis, it does not grant an extra 6.88 ticks, therefore Biting over a TFed Rip is always a DPS gain during BitW (Ignoring Rake/SR).

Edit: Raw output for the curious here: http://pastebin.com/HMjn3jJ2 (Note: Tiger's Fury damage bonus multiplier is set to 1.0, so don't quote the numbers out of context at all.)
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Mew: http://code.google.com/p/mew-wow-druid-model/

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Leafkiller » Mon Jun 06, 2011 4:06 am

You did not take into account the lost shred Yawning (Tinder made the same error) - there is an opportunity cost there since the FB is replacing a Shred and also clipping Rip. There is also probably a small loss of uptime on SR and Rake (very small). Do you have numbers for the average dps for shred?

Rather than play with napkin math, here is some Mew data.

With the most current 4.2 Mew, the default sim script, and the default 372 T11 profile (I updated my code base immediately before running these tests):

DPS: 26993.33816 +/- 12.84832
Min/Max DPS: 24682.19667 / 29638.79333
StdDev: 655.52631

With the 5 combo point FB only being used when Rip hase 4 seconds or less left:

Code: Select all
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && ripRemaining <= 4)
   return Action.BITE


DPS: 26769.71997 +/- 12.77015
Min/Max DPS: 24193.67667 / 29087.83667
StdDev: 651.53816

With the 5 combo point waiting to clip TFed Rips (4 second window) but casting FB the rest of the time on 5 combo points:

I broke this into two checks.
Code: Select all
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && !status.isRipTFed())
   return Action.BITE
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && ripRemaining <= 4 && status.isRipTFed())
   return Action.BITE


DPS: 26990.23547 +/- 12.91334
Min/Max DPS: 24682.19667 / 29321.84667
StdDev: 658.84389
=========================

So - looking at a single profile, having the code only refresh Rip with FB just before it expires is a significant dps loss (over 200dps). Changing the code to wait on clipping a TFed Rip is actually pretty much dps neutral (must be the shred).

TLDR - When in BiTW phase, use FB whenever you hit 5 combo points and don't worry about clipping.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Qbear » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:31 am

Leafkiller wrote:TLDR - When in BiTW phase, use FB whenever you hit 5 combo points and don't worry about clipping.


Should of put this at the top so I could of ignored all those fancy numbers /headache =)

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Yawning » Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:43 am

Leafkiller wrote:You did not take into account the lost shred Yawning (Tinder made the same error) - there is an opportunity cost there since the FB is replacing a Shred and also clipping Rip. There is also probably a small loss of uptime on SR and Rake (very small). Do you have numbers for the average dps for shred?


So I did, mea culpa. The shred numbers are in the log.

Comparing output shows the defer case gaining half a shred and losing half a bite. And you gain 0.5% ish SR uptime (and use slightly higher CP SRs). Mmmm, second order effects.
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Mew: http://code.google.com/p/mew-wow-druid-model/

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby CaptainCub » Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:46 am

Are you guys using 4.2 numbers for FB and Shred? I thought we were talking about the current patch and on live DPE numbers for FB and Shred are much closer. That's what led me to believe and through practical experience that the opportunity cost of not Shredding to land an FB is hardly worth it, especially if Unheeded Warning's about to come off ICD. How much additional energy are you using to FB so that it tips the scales in FB's favor ? I assumed you used 70 so that's almost 2 Shreds and 2 chances at dealing a crit versus only one if you bite. I guess reasoning in terms of maximum dmg is not optimal but my 67K bites seem to pale when compared to my 50K+ Shreds under UW.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Leafkiller » Mon Jun 06, 2011 3:28 pm

Yes - the current round of testing that Yawning and I did was using a 4.2 version of Mew. Your concern is valid CaptainCub - so I will repeat the tests using a 4.1 version of the simulator. It was very late when we ran the tests last night - I think Yawning used the 4.2 Mew because he was doing some napkin math and felt the difference was large enough that it would not matter. I used the 4.2 simulator to verify his napkin math because he had not covered Shred (or other secondary effects) in his napkin math. With the results being pretty close for the TFed Rip case, it is worth verifying in 4.1 since the balance between Shred and FB is different. Repeating the tests on the 4.1 Mew (4/25 release), using a version of my toon from April and my sim script, here is what I get:

Current rotation:
DPS: 23815.22676 +/- 11.02172
Min/Max DPS: 21662.37 / 25976.26667
StdDev: 562.3329

Rotation with TFed Rips being refreshed right before they expire:
Code: Select all
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && !status.isRipTFed())
   return Action.BITE
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && ripRemaining <= 4 && status.isRipTFed())
   return Action.BITE


DPS: 23825.8804 +/- 11.09758
Min/Max DPS: 21714.92667 / 25880.09333
StdDev: 566.203


And just for completeness - holding off on all FBs until Rip is about to expire:

Code: Select all
if (cps == 5 && status.isRipUp() && status.isInBloodInTheWaterRange() && ripRemaining <= 4)
   return Action.BITE;


DPS: 23727.32096 +/- 11.04352
Min/Max DPS: 21704.48667 / 25861.39333
StdDev: 563.44467

TLDR: the 10dps swing for not clipping TFed Rips is still within the dps confidence range and is not statistically significant. Even if it is indeed 10dps higher to not clip TFed Rips, it is not enough of a gain to bother with - especially since it would require you to know that a given Rip was TFed - something we cannot easily detect in game. The other case - where you try to hold off on all FBs until Rip is close to expiring is significantly worse and should be avoided. It is better to 5 point FB than to Shred in the BitW phase.

Edit: Keep in mind that hitting FB before the BitW phase versus spamming Shreds is not a huge dps difference. The recommendation to take FB out was because using it made the rotation more complex with no gain, and in actual play increased the opportunity for player mistakes. So it is not surprising that using FB on cooldown in the BitW phase is a dps gain due to the free Rip refreshes. The only wrench in the discussion is that you are overwriting TFed Rips early - but as the numbers show, it is not significant enough to worry about.

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby CaptainCub » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:00 am

Thank you for researching into this.
Leafkiller wrote:The only wrench in the discussion is that you are overwriting TFed Rips early - but as the numbers show, it is not significant enough to worry about.

Unless you macro Synapse Springs to Tiger's Fury like I do, which should make the dps delta wider.
Last question, does biting during BitW increase the time interval between the two ticks prior to and after the bite? And if it does, does Mew expect us to bite at exactly the right time? (like it is my understanding if you clip Rip before the penultimate tick, you are losing a portion of a tick, right? unless you have zero latency and robotic reflexes OFC)

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Re: Shred/FB Priority during BitW

Postby Yawning » Tue Jun 07, 2011 9:50 pm

CaptainCub wrote:Unless you macro Synapse Springs to Tiger's Fury like I do, which should make the dps delta wider.


The delta can be exactly the same. Bite while the proc is still up. Even with the proc, effect of clipping off a portion of the proc isn't what I would personally consider meaningful on a human level, especially in 4.2 which is what I test with lately.

Fairly basic back of the envelop math that I don't feel like cleaning up would say that the max dps loss from clipping the proc is ~ 30 DPS or so (4.2 372 geared druid.). Ok, so the net change is greater than the confidence interval of the sim, however the only reason why doing something like this isn't a flat out DPS loss in the first place is because the Sim managed to get higher SR uptime and be more CP efficient when doing this.

People do not play nearly that well, but if you want to do that and feel like it produces a noticeable difference power to you.

CaptainCub wrote:Last question, does biting during BitW increase the time interval between the two ticks prior to and after the bite? And if it does, does Mew expect us to bite at exactly the right time? (like it is my understanding if you clip Rip before the penultimate tick, you are losing a portion of a tick, right? unless you have zero latency and robotic reflexes OFC)


Refreshing Rip in all shapes and forms did not push back the tick timer the last time I checked, and I'm not going to go check it again for reasons that should be obvious.
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Mew: http://code.google.com/p/mew-wow-druid-model/

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