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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby averter » Sun Mar 10, 2013 4:37 pm

feralminded wrote:Very curious as to why the Bad Juju 528 is below the 522. Seems fishy to me (also selfishly interested since I just got the 528 and replaced my 484 Xuen and desperately hoping it wasn't a waste of GP)
It's that bad trinket. Got it with coin. Proc is 0.5 RPPM. Testing it was just awful, proced about every 4min and uptime was worse then Berserk, voodoo dolls are just for vanity (4k dps per proc).

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Sun Mar 10, 2013 4:53 pm

Really not sure why the 528 one simmed below the 522 one. The profiles are all set up correctly as far as I can tell and the higher item level one has a larger agility proc as it should.

And yeah it pretty much just sucks. It's got about double the agility from the proc that Bottle of Infinite Stars gives but it has less than half the uptime.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Stenhaldi » Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:35 pm

Just noting that after anecdotal reports that the trinkets seemed to be proccing more frequently, a hunter and rogue in my guild did some target dummy testing with their Bad Juju and Talisman of Bloodlust. The results were discrepant with the given RPPM values for the trinkets by about 4.3 standard deviations (2.5 and 3.5 respectively), but consistent with those given values scaled by about 1.2. That is to say, it's likely that these trinkets (and presumably others) saw their proc rates buffed by about 20% in the last 2-3 days, though I'd hold off on doing much work with that figure until we see the next round of hotfix notes.

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Cetlysm » Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:55 pm

On a 7:25 min fight Saturday i managed to get
Blades of Renataki 10 - 199.8 - 44.8 %
Then on a 9 min fight
Blades of Renataki 6 - 119.9 - 21.7 %
and then a 4 min fight
Blades of Renataki 4 - 66.1 - 23.9 %

All fights with very high uptime on target
The week when 5.2 was released I was lucky if I ever proced above 5% uptime
They did buffed the proc chance or tweaked the rppm in some way.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Camaleontix » Wed Mar 13, 2013 12:59 pm

First of all thank you for the guides and for creating a great comunity also for us... W feral druids!! :D

I want ask you some questions about stat priorities at the beginning of this discussion (with DoC talent): are they upgraded? Is haste better than crit? I've been playing Mastery > Hit > Exp > Crit > Haste all the 5.1 patch and after reading that stat priority now I'm in trouble.
Besides that today Ghostcrawler sent a blue post telling that 5.2 trinkets were buffed (as Cetlysm said before) so Rentaki 522 and bad juju 502 are better than relic 484 and Vicious talisman 522? Until yesterday the second combination was better now I don't know what I should prefer...

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby averter » Wed Mar 13, 2013 1:24 pm

Was wondering the same thing - crit vs haste. I think haste > crit priority is tied to our 2t15 and 4t15 set bonuses but to what degree and when should actually stat priority change when gearing up.

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Kroníc » Wed Mar 13, 2013 1:27 pm

With today's changes to the agility trinkets and procs, will this change any of the trinket rankings at all?

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Dysheki » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:50 pm

Kroníc wrote:With today's changes to the agility trinkets and procs, will this change any of the trinket rankings at all?

Since all trinkets are getting their proc rate increased by the same amount I doubt it will have huge changes. It will, however, help the frustration that comes with trinkets at a lower RPPM to not go so long without proccing. Yesterday was my first use with Rune and it was quite annoying to go for such a long period of time without proccing at the start of combat (when you are using a potion, TF, berserk, other trinket proc, etc).
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Camaleontix » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:31 pm

Tonight i will try haste > crit, if it doesn't go well I change again in crit>haste.... however I'm 498 wit 4 T14N pieces... I hope to have some improovement!!!

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:07 pm

RPPM trinkets will almost definitely increase in value some amount but the relative power of them in relation to each other is unlikely to change much if it all. I'll have new numbers up sometime today or tomorrow (waiting for the relevant changes to be made in SimC).
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby RareBeast » Wed Mar 13, 2013 6:19 pm

Camaleontix wrote:Tonight i will try haste > crit, if it doesn't go well I change again in crit>haste.... however I'm 498 wit 4 T14N pieces... I hope to have some improovement!!!


With RNG to take in to account you would have to do a vast number of fights to be able to get any statistically useful info on which is better. When on one attempt you might end up with 30% crits and another you might get 50% crit due to RNG, the difference changing your minor stats will give is not noticeable.

This is why people do 20k+ runs on SIMCRAFT.

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:14 pm

Someone was nice enough to point out to me that the current rankings, despite me thinking I had it set to DoC, were actually done as HotW. The updated sims, which I will hopefully be posting in a few minutes, will be using DoC as intended.

Also please note that these results are preliminary, the folks at SimC aren't 100% certain that the new RPPM implementation is correct, so things should be taken with a grain of salt as always.

Edit: New DoC results are up. HotW soon to come as well.

Edit: HotW added. No plans to ad NV at this time since it's pretty pointless.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Sabrac » Thu Mar 14, 2013 3:56 am

Just wondering.

Why is the ilvl 522 rentaki soul charm ranked higher than the 528 version?
Unless I missed something, shouldn't these be the other way around?

Same seems to be the case for bad juju.

On the hotw version...

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Paloro » Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:32 am

aggixx wrote:Someone was nice enough to point out to me that the current rankings, despite me thinking I had it set to DoC, were actually done as HotW. The updated sims, which I will hopefully be posting in a few minutes, will be using DoC as intended.


No problem man ;)

I really appreciate all the time you pour into this as my schedule just doesn't allow me to do it anymore. Keep up the good work!
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Alpheus » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:07 am

Trinket shenanigans confirmed:

For 5.2, we made a change to trinkets to make them less predictable and less boring with the RPPM system. Sometimes you can get lucky and get several back to back procs. This feels cool. Sometimes you can also be unlucky, and get long streaks when the trinket just refuses to proc. A trinket that is intended to proc every 1 minute could in theory go 8 minutes or more without activating.

Last night we hotfixed in a change for trinkets that use the RPPM system. Every time your trinket fails to proc, it increases the chance it will proc. Unlucky streaks will be more rare and extremely unlucky streaks should never happen. In addition, we increased the chance for these trinkets to proc on the pull. To top it off, we increased the proc rates of the Agility and Strength trinkets in Throne of Thunder by 10% and the Intellect and Spirit trinkets by 5%.


Also:

Calculate the proc frequency as normal. Based on that, you can figure out the expected average proc interval. We also now keep track of time since the last successful proc (this is different from the time since last chance to proc), capped at 1000 sec. Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and it’s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, you’ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If you’ve been out of combat for a few min, and it’s been 5 min since your last successful proc, you’ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance.

We increased the proc rate of the following trinkets by 10%:
  • Renataki’s Soul Charm
  • Talisman of Bloodlust
  • Bad Juju
  • Rune of Re-Origination
  • Fabled Feather of Ji-Kun
  • Primordius' Talisman of Rage
  • Spark of Zandalar
  • Gaze of the Twins

We increased the proc rate of the following trinkets by 5%:
  • Wushoolay’s Final Choice
  • Breath of the Hydra
  • Unerring Vision of Lei-Shen
  • Cha-Ye's Essence of Brilliance
  • Horridon's Last Gasp
  • Inscribed Bag of Hydra-Spawn
  • Stolen Relic of Zuldazar
  • Lightning-Imbued Chalice

Unerring Vision of Lei-Shen now has 65% of the normal proc rate for Balance Druids, up from 50%.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Thu Mar 14, 2013 11:51 am

Sabrac wrote:Just wondering.

Why is the ilvl 522 rentaki soul charm ranked higher than the 528 version?
Unless I missed something, shouldn't these be the other way around?

Same seems to be the case for bad juju.

On the hotw version...


Like I said earlier on this page... I really don't know. The 528 profile has the same uptime on the proc, a larger proc size, and (as far as I can tell) more base stats on the item. It very well might be a problem in SimC so for now I would disregard.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Woem » Thu Mar 14, 2013 6:06 pm

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-3jhc3dl18750075d/details/18/?s=11547&e=11981


10 times in 7.5 mins? Bad juju crazy or just batshit insane lucky?

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Thu Mar 14, 2013 6:13 pm

In SimC it gets about 5 procs on average, so I'm no statistician but that's probably just lucky.

PS: I only see 7 procs in that parse you linked.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Woem » Thu Mar 14, 2013 6:19 pm

My bad, quick to type, am still raiding x]

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Cetlysm » Thu Mar 14, 2013 11:24 pm

Woem wrote:http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-3jhc3dl18750075d/details/18/?s=11547&e=11981


10 times in 7.5 mins? Bad juju crazy or just batshit insane lucky?

5 procs from Juju and 7 from blades in 7:43 min, bad uptime on anything tho because add bitch duty.

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-gioqv54jral9izam/details/15/?s=5344&e=5798
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Helistar » Sat Mar 16, 2013 10:21 am

aggixx wrote:Like I said earlier on this page... I really don't know. The 528 profile has the same uptime on the proc, a larger proc size, and (as far as I can tell) more base stats on the item. It very well might be a problem in SimC so for now I would disregard.


Ok, so more or less the conclusion is "get the Rune, then get whatever you can get because we can't tell them apart with a simulation"?

EDIT: a possible explanation: could it be that the higher ilvl trinket causes some DoT refreshes which mess up with the cycle? What I mean is that they only change is that the proc is a bit bigger, if it's enough to trigger a rake refresh because the ticks damage increase crosses the treshold, this will change the energy usage, potentially changing a lot.

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby raffy » Sat Mar 16, 2013 6:55 pm

Stenhaldi and I did some basic analysis on this recent buff.

Posts:
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic ... ?page=3#59
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic ... ?page=4#77
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic ... ?page=4#80

Plots:
Uptime vs HastedRPPM: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2989349/RPPMChange.png
Chance vs AverageProcInterval: http://i.imgur.com/OvSqAi8.png

Fits:
Bad Juju (3h10m) - http://i.imgur.com/UVQRBpO.png
Talisman of Bloodlust (1h) - http://i.imgur.com/jzTmfQY.png
Renataki's Soul Charm (5h50m) - http://i.imgur.com/do5PNgX.png

tl;dr: 13-15% increase in procs

I've slacking lately on getting some new Catus results. Again, I'll try to work on a normal 522ish ilvl trinket pair ranking for this weekend.

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby Stenhaldi » Sat Mar 16, 2013 9:56 pm

raffy wrote:Fits:
Bad Juju (3h10m) - http://i.imgur.com/UVQRBpO.png
Talisman of Bloodlust (1h) - http://i.imgur.com/jzTmfQY.png
Renataki's Soul Charm (5h50m) - http://i.imgur.com/do5PNgX.png

To be clear, those are actually not fits - rather, I'm superposing the prediction itself (with no fitting parameters at all) using the probability density function (which I derived in the limit where the player attacks continuously)

f(t) = k e^(-kt) , if kt <= 1.5
f(t) = k (1+(kt-1.5)*3) e^(-kt (1+(kt/2-1.5)*3)-3.375) , if kt > 1.5

with k = <nominal proc rate>*(1+haste), and <nominal proc rate> coming from this list and scaled by 1.1 (in accordance with the explicit buff).

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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby aggixx » Sun Mar 17, 2013 1:58 pm

Helistar wrote:
aggixx wrote:Like I said earlier on this page... I really don't know. The 528 profile has the same uptime on the proc, a larger proc size, and (as far as I can tell) more base stats on the item. It very well might be a problem in SimC so for now I would disregard.


Ok, so more or less the conclusion is "get the Rune, then get whatever you can get because we can't tell them apart with a simulation"?

EDIT: a possible explanation: could it be that the higher ilvl trinket causes some DoT refreshes which mess up with the cycle? What I mean is that they only change is that the proc is a bit bigger, if it's enough to trigger a rake refresh because the ticks damage increase crosses the treshold, this will change the energy usage, potentially changing a lot.


That occurred to me as well, and when I ran a scaling plot for AP it did seem to back up the the theory pretty well. However, there isn't any noticeable difference in ability usage when it comes to the lines that calculate dot power.
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Re: Talent & Trinket Analysis (w/ Stat Weights!)

Postby feralminded » Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:35 am

I am not sure if it's a tooltip error or what but my 528 Juju is only proccing for 4.4k agility (according to WoL), though it appears to be proccing around 1/90 seconds (5 procs on jikun). I doubt that's of any help.

edit: hmm, just training dummies it and it's paper-dolling me for the full 7.7k. Tooltip errors abound.
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